Throwed salute in honor of victory in the great Patriotic war. It’s time to apply to weekdays. And they have always shown that no matter how many times repeated the President’s goal of strengthening “economic sovereignty”, as if warmly no applauded state Duma deputies and government officials, fluctuations of the ruble — and this is, by definition, the main nerve of the Russian economy — are not regulated in Moscow.
Almost on Victory Day the American President Donald trump broke the so-called nuclear deal with Tehran, the meaning of which consisted in the lifting of sanctions in response to Iran”s refusal of work on a military nuclear program. In Washington, the President signed the Memorandum on the resumption of anti-Iranian sanctions. No different with concrete justification in the presentation of trump are as follows: “today we have accurate evidence that Iran promises were lies”, “last week the government of Israel issued a document containing intelligence… which demonstrate the historic commitment of the Iranian regime of nuclear weapons”.
Trump previously sharply criticized the deal with Iran made by his predecessor Barack Obama, considering, in particular, that it leaves Tehran freedom in the development of ballistic missiles. The proposals of the European allies about preparing new agreements with Iran without breaking old deals trump rejected. Moreover, the American President threatens Iran with tougher sanctions continues: “Powerful sanctions will come into force if the regime will continue to realize its nuclear ambitions. It will have even larger problems than ever before.”
Who has benefited? Among the main beneficiaries — Moscow. In the field of geopolitics winning double. On the one hand, Iran, with which Russia is strengthening political, military and economic cooperation, once again gets a blow from the United States that brings together two countries that were targets of the sanctions. So, Moscow’s plans related to the strengthening of relations with Iran are expanding.
On the other hand, trump once again ignored the opinion of its European allies, as it has been, for example, with the introduction of U.S. tariffs on some imported goods. As a result, Moscow can use historical experience “in intra-imperialist contradictions”.
In a geopolitical prize is the fly in the ointment: the fact of the rapprochement between Moscow and Tehran clearly does not bring Russia to the “institutional modernization.”
But economic wins double bottom does not contain. It is clear that new-old sanctions against Iran immediately pushed up the price of oil. Two days after signing with trump anti-Iranian Memorandum, they increased by almost 4%. Exceeded the level of November 2014, the price of Brent crude oil reached $78 a barrel.
The oil pulled up the ruble. His “pitch” is far more modest. Affects, for example, the expansion of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance on the domestic market, but a clear trend is evident. Winning and raising the standard of living of the population (foreign resorts in the beginning of the holiday season became a little closer), and more freedom for the Central Bank, which have additional chances to continue the policy to reduce rates.
I recall the last “dive” of the ruble was also due to not so much internal but external reasons, primarily the new wave of American anti-Russian sanctions.
So maybe not worth spending political ammunition for a fight against windmills? Economic sovereignty, understood literally as an economic self-sufficiency, is or yesterday, or the elusive phantom. Today it is not achieved by fencing off from the world, but, on the contrary, the growth of offer the global market products. The task of strengthening economic sovereignty — is not confrontation with the dollar or the Euro and not only the combination of economic unions and their opposition to each other. The main thing — the growth of competitiveness of domestic production, in this in the first place should focus of economic policy.