The government compromise: as evidenced by the new composition of the White house

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The new team in the White house “compromise” for elite groups loyal to the President government of technocrats, according to respondents RBC experts. Ministers will hold a “jerk” and unpopular reforms under control-Siluanov

Anton Siluanov

(Photo: Alexander Miridonov / Kommersant)

Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev on may 18, Friday, afternoon met in Sochi with President Vladimir Putin and presented him with candidates for the new government. The head of state accepted the proposal and signed the decree appointing the new Cabinet.

The government should implement a “breakthrough” is announced in the election campaign of Putin. To carry out and supervise ambitious the may decree, the expenditures for which will amount to 25 trillion roubles (of them for at least another 8 trillion the government will have to find), will be checked by the Vice-premiers and Ministers. Of the 32 officials in the new Cabinet 14 is not worked in the previous government, but some of them held certain posts in the previous one.

This is the office with high continuity in economic policy, the Director of the development Center of the Higher school of Economics Natalia Akindinova. For example, the financial-economic bloc of the government headed by the first Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov (Minister of Finance), in crisis, defended the tough approach to additional budget expenditures. Docblock will supervise eks-the Chairman of the accounts chamber Tatyana Golikova, who has the trust of the President. And agriculture in the status of Vice-Premier will be Alexei Gordeyev, who conducted a large-scale reform in the industry in the early 2000-ies.

The new government — the Cabinet, a compromise for all. There are Ministers heavyweights, which can be considered as direct appointees of Putin, Sergei Shoigu, Sergei Lavrov, Anton Siluanov, Alexander Novak, and Denis Manturov, said political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko. For Ministers-beginners are serious groups of influence, I’m sure Minchenko: Mikhail Kotyukova (science) — the brothers Yuri and Mikhail Kovalchuk, Alexander Kozlov (Ministry) — Deputy Prime Minister and presidential envoy Yuri Trutnev, Dmitry Patrushev (Ministry of agriculture) — his father, the Secretary of security Council Nikolai Patrushev. Although the acquaintance between the Minister and an influential official or businessman doesn’t mean he will “blindly to pursue his interests,” says the former employee of presidential administration Andrey Kolyadin.

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But the main surprise of the assignments was the “General feeling” that the government no persons with whom one would associate the idea of “breakthrough,” the analyst said Abbas Gallyamov.

In the office very few people Medvedev, but the White house head close to him, Konstantin Chuichenko, former head of control management of the President, and thus head of the White house will retain levers of influence on the Cabinet. Although the Prime Minister has lost an old colleague, Arkady Dvorkovich.

“The higher bureaucracy, formed from the loyal Putin’s technocrats close to the corporations, clearly takes a more important place in the elite than before,” — says the Director of the Center for economic and political reform Nikolay Mironov. He notes the hierarchical structure of the Cabinet, in terms of hardware logic — the Vice-premiers in this carry out ideological functions, and the Ministers will be engaged in “creative execution”.

Team under orders of may

The Ministers of Finance and economic development has remained the same — Anton Siluanov and Maxim Oreshkin. For the first time in the history of modern Russia the Minister of Finance will also take the post of first Deputy Prime Minister for economy. Increase Siluanov means support for a policy of “holding small budget from the big appetites”, said Alexandra Suslina of the Economic expert group. Siluanov will monitor the effective spending of 25 trillion virtually any required for the implementation of the may decree of Putin, said to RBC the President of “OPORA Russia” Alexander Kalinin.

But relations between the heads of the two ministries are quite strenuous, told RBC two Federal official. Oreshkin, leading the Ministry of economic development, has quickly become an independent player and not all agree with the Minister of Finance. For example, the Ministry of Finance proposed last fall to prevent the tightening of currency control in Russia is in crisis, and. opposed. In February of this year, the Department could not agree on the infrastructure of the mortgage.

Competitive relations between the Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for rational spending of the budget, and the Ministry of economic development, seeking to spend money, has always been the norm, says political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya. But the strengthening of the Ministry of Finance restricts the possibilities of economic development.

Unpopular reforms are “old” Ministers

Sibelco government will face difficult tasks. Putin in the new the may decree ordered by 2024 to halve the number of those living below the poverty line, to increase life expectancy to 78 years, to achieve growth of pensions above inflation and a stable increase of incomes of the population. Medvedev announced increase in the retirement age.

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The responsibility for these reforms will take head from 2013, the Accounts chamber Tatyana Golikova. The rest of implement new the may decree of Putin in the social sphere will be almost exactly the same people that worked in the previous Cabinet of Ministers, heads of Ministry of health, Ministry of labor and Ministry of education have retained posts in the new government, as predicted by the source of RBC. Responsible for pension in the new government will be former Minister of labour and social protection Maxim Topilin. Last year he said that the time for raising the retirement age has not yet come. Now, sources RBC reported that the Agency is already discussing the option of raising the retirement age for men to 65 years for women to 60 years.

Separate education

In the new government authorities still try to implement discussed for the last several years the concept, suggesting that primary and secondary education on the one hand and higher education and science other ministries. Minister of education, a breakaway from the Ministry of education and science, will be Olga Vasilieva, a native of presidential administration on public projects. Initially, in may 2016, when Vasiliev came to lead the Ministry of education, it was assumed that it will take the government post of the head of the Ministry of education, but the division offices have been postponed until after the presidential election. One and a half years of Ministerial work Vasilyev kept the policy of centralization: proposed to transfer the management of schools from the municipal level on regional, under her leadership, has drafted a new Federal rosobrazovaniya standards with reduced variability in teaching. Vasiliev support including the Metropolitan of Pskov and Porkhov Tikhon (Shevkunov) and to a lesser extent, speaker of the state Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, said RBC analyst Minchenko.

As head of the new Ministry of science and higher education took the head of the Federal Agency for scientific organisations Mikhail Kotyukov, who was in charge of the property of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) and funds for research and development.

Continuity

The appointment of Dmitry Patrushev, the post of Minister of agriculture for many became surprise. Founder of the holding “Belaya dacha” and former agriculture Minister Viktor Semenov called him a “man-incognito”. Through his father, Secretary of the security Council Nikolai Patrushev, the new Minister is an influential group of law enforcers. For eight years Dmitry Patrushev headed the Russian agricultural Bank. He is familiar with the system of agricultural financing: the Bank held a significant portion of funding for the state program of agricultural development (in 2016 — nearly a third of the lending market APK and 75% financing of seasonal field works).

Photo: Vitaly Timkivi / RIA Novosti

As head of the Ministry of agriculture Patrushev will work with Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Gordeyev, appointed to oversee agriculture. With his participation was revived by the agricultural Bank and started lending mechanism farmers.

“The substitution of old item the second generation, it reminds personnel elevators late nomenklatura of the USSR”, — said the analyst Mironov appointment Patrushev Jr.

Hard the curator and the Minister of NOVATEK

Serious changes were undergone by the industrial unit. In charge of energy and industry Deputy Prime Minister was Dmitry Kozak, who served as Deputy Prime Minister since 2008 and was in charge of spatial development (intergovernmental relations, and infrastructure in the regions, utilities, etc.). After the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014, Kozak was responsible in the government for integration. RBC sources described him as a tough Deputy Prime Minister who reports on missed deadlines, requests to submit orders for the punishment up to dismissal.

The new Minister of natural resources was Dmitry Kobylkin, 2010 held a post of the Governor of the key and growing oil and gas regions in Russia — Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous district. In ratings of the effectiveness of governors has traditionally been the first line.

Kobylkin has long worked at the enterprises for gas production. Political career he began in 2002, and before that about ten years he worked in different structures of NOVATEK — one of the main investors in the region. In the region there is a plant to produce liquefied natural gas in Yamal LNG, the NOVATEK-controlled (in the opening of its first phase in December 2017, was attended by the President). Three of the interlocutor in the industry attribute the appointment Kobylkin with the interests of Leonid Mikhelson and Gennady Timchenko (NOVATEK shareholders). This representative refused to comment. Kobylkin noticed as a good specialist, not as a party member or a “red Director,” said friend of the Minister.

Alexander Novak remained energy Minister in the new government. It is neutral Minister, who in General are satisfied with the market, said RBC source in one of the companies. The main achievement Novak is considered to be an agreement to limit production from the OPEC countries which boosted the oil prices and to attract in the budget of 1.2 trillion virtually any.

The Minister for The digital economy

In the new government, the authorities decided to reconsider the approach to the field of communication and it. The industry has a new supervising Deputy Prime Minister Maxim Akimov, on whose initiative it was proposed to rename the Ministry the Ministry digital development, communications and communications. For the post of head of the renewed Ministry has been appointed head of the Analytical center under the government of Russia Konstantin Noskov, a close friend Akimova, said the source of RBC in the it market. Akimov has great weight hardware, told RBC General Director of company “New cloud” Dmitry Komissarov. He participated in the implementation of the state program “Digital economy”, whose budget amounted to more than 500 billion virtually any.

Photo: Vladimir Trefilov / RIA Novosti

Several market participants noted that the Socks has no close ties with major players in the communications and it markets. He “balanced candidate” — in charge of administrative reform in the government, and today needs a “new round” of such reform — optimization of business processes through digital technologies, said RBC Advisor to the head of the Department of information technology of Moscow on strategic projects and innovation Andrei Belozerov. The new Minister will face the task of development of the country’s digital economy on the basis of the communication infrastructure created under the previous leadership of the Ministry of communications, the Director of the Regional public center of Internet technologies Sergei Grebennikov.

In addition Noskova wards in the government the Deputy Prime Minister Akimova will be the new Minister of transport. As predicted, the sources of RBC is Eugene Dietrich, departed Deputy Minister Maxim Sokolov. To its credit it put the solution of problems with the truckers who were opposed to the introduction of the “Platon”, and the training of the Crimean bridge. On the resignation of Sokolov was influenced by autumn the scandal with the bankruptcy “VIM-Avia”, which provoked a crisis in passenger traffic.

Sobyanin People on the scene

Vladimir Putin has accepted the resignation of Vladimir Yakushev, Governor of Tyumen region and appointed him as the Minister of construction and housing and communal services. According to the Yakushev, the offer to become Minister, he received three days before the appointment and as the “sovereign people” could not take any decision. The new Minister is considered a person close to the mayor of the capital Sergey Sobyanin, — from 2001 to 2005, Sobyanin was Governor of Tyumen region Yakushev and his Deputy.

With the advent of Yakushev in Moscow launched a program of renovation can be implemented in the regions to saturate the market with affordable housing, commented RBC co-founder of the consortium I-Renovation of the Alexander weisfeld. The renovation will allow myself only a few regions due to lack of funds on the other, parry, senior research fellow, center for budgetary policy studies, Ranepa, Alexander Deryugin. Yakushev will work in cooperation with the new Deputy Prime Minister for the construction of Vitaly Mutko.

The power unit is unchanged

The power block of the government has not changed, with the exception of emergency situations. Deputy Director of the FSB Evgeny Senichev will be replaced by Vladimir Puchkov, Minister of emergency situations. For the post of Deputy Director of the FSB, he was appointed in November 2016, after only 70 days in office, the acting Governor of the Kaliningrad region. From 2006 to 2015 Senichev served in the presidential security Service personal aide, from June 2015 occupied the post of head of the Kaliningrad FSB. A source in the security services, some time worked with Senichevym, described it as “shallow” familiar with the mouth, but a person with a reputation as a good organizer and artist. Sources RBC close to the management of the emergencies Ministry, reported that the decision to leave Puchkov was taken in mid — April – the March fire in the Kemerovo TRK “Winter cherry” “was the last claim” the country’s leadership to Minister.

Photo: Valery Matytsin / TASS

At the same time the source in the Central apparatus of the interior Ministry predicted that his post will keep the interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, whose Agency is responsible for prevention and suppression of illegal actions at carrying out of the world Cup. Despite the constant predictions of Kolokoltseva resignation, the Ministry of interior there is no big problem, explained the source in the Central apparatus of the Ministry. Kolokoltsev did not create conflict situations and “does not fit in the political process,” said RBC the General-the major in resignation Vladimir Vorozhtsov.

A senior source in the defense Ministry RBC confidently predicted that his post will remain and Sergei Shoigu, but “large Stripping” waiting for the Central office of the military Department.

Ex-Deputy of Shoigu, and now the new Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov in a new government to oversee the defense industry is Dmitry Rogozin. The source of RBC was associated with the decrease Rogozin failures in the space industry. Rogozin, presumably, will lead the “Roscosmos” with a view to its reorganization in the aerospace holding company. Changer Rogozin Borisov was appointed to the Board of Directors of the Uralvagonzavod, the United aircraft Corporation and other large enterprises of the defense industry. He is a man, Sergei Chemezov, and his arrival will strengthen rostec, said Yevgeny Minchenko.

Post Your expected retained Alexander Konovalov, a classmate of Prime Minister Medvedev, who heads the justice Ministry since 2008.

The ideology of culture

Despite the fact that the day before the announcement of the new government were detained on the case of plunders in the Hermitage ex-Deputy Minister of culture Grigory Pirumov, and Vladimir Medinsky has kept a post of the Minister of culture, as predicted by the source of RBC.

Medina happy with Putin and the relevant Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets, it has a high level of trust and the Kremlin, according to sources RBC, close to the office. Golodets was in government as a Deputy Prime Minister, but with the changing scope of supervision — instead of health and education, she will oversee culture and sport. The candidacy of Medina supports including film Director Nikita Mikhalkov, who has credibility in the eyes of Putin, said the officials RBC. “As an ideologist in the field of culture Medinsky suits the Kremlin”, — the analyst believes Mironov.

Minister of stories around the criminal case against the artistic Director of “Gogol-center” Kirill Serebrennikov and revoking the license of the film “Death of Stalin” is an odious figure, but only a few representatives of the liberal community, said one of the sources of RBC. By the end of 2017, the market box office grew by almost 11%, to 53.6 billion virtually any Fees domestic films for the first time since 2010 has surpassed 20% and was 24.3% of the total rental. And at the end of last year Russia became the biggest film market in Europe by number of tickets sold.

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